The PGA Tour wraps up a three-week swing through Asia this week with the WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, China. The 78-man field is composed of some of the best golfers from the Official World Golf Ranking, led by No. 2 Rory McIlroy. Below, we analyze the odds for the 2019 HSBC Champions and provide PGA Tour betting picks and tips.
My model at Fantasy National is set to the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field and looks at the key stats of:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Birdies Gained
- Greens in Regulation Gained
- Proximity: 150-175 Yards
HSBC Champions – Tier 1
Paul Casey +2200
Casey is No. 1 in my stat model ahead of McIlroy. He leads the field in Greens in Regulation Gained and he ranks second to only Rory in SG: Ball Striking. His worst rank of the five key stats is 11th in Birdies Gained. Casey finished T-17 last week at the Zozo Championship and he hasn’t finished worse than T-23 in the last four years at this event.
Tony Finau +2500
Finau finished solo second last year following a T-11 result in his 2018 debut in Shanghai. One of the best drivers and ball strikers on the PGA Tour, Finau is a good bet at the top of the board with his T-59 result last week inflating his odds a little bit. Ranked No. 13 by the OWGR, he’s the sixth-best golfer in the field and is tied for the sixth-best odds.
HSBC Champions – Tier 2
Sergio Garcia +5000
El Nino is little more than a month removed from a victory at the European Tour’s KLM Open. The win was the 26th of his career on either the European or PGA Tours. He hasn’t participated in this event since 2017, but he was T-9 that year and T-11 the year prior. His 2.43 Strokes Gained per round at Sheshan International rank Garcia second to former champ Justin Rose among those with at least 12 rounds here since 2015.
Chez Reavie +8000
Reavie leads the field in the key proximity stat. The 37-year-old ranks 31st in the world following his 70th-place finish at the Zozo. He has started the 2019-20 season slow following an excellent 2018-19 campaign, which saw him climb as high as 26th in the OWGR following his victory at the Travelers Championship.
HSBC Champions – Longshots
Bubba Watson +10000
Watson is priced among golfers from secondary tours from around the globe. He’s coming off a down season but still enters the week ranked 37th in the world and was a three-time winner in 2017-18. He’s still among the best drivers in the field and claimed victory here in 2014.
W.C. Liang +75000
Liang is one of just three Chinese golfers with 24 rounds played in this event since 2014. He shares the longest odds of the entire field with a $1 bet returning a profit of $750.
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